Interesting
times indeed…
Extending the
olive branch to all insurgents of the country was one of the promises that the
President said to the Filipino people. Considered one of the longest Maoist
inspired rebellion in asia is that of the Communist Party of the Philippines-
New Peoples Army as against the government of the Republic of the Philippines.
The United States of America on its part considers the armed wing of the CPP,
the NPA as a terrorist group under its watch list.
President
Rodrigo Roa Duterte extended his peace initiative to the CPP-NPA, various
reasons coming from both sides have made the peace negotiation on and off.
Respected security and defense consultant Mr. Jose Antonio Custodio, in his
article titled “Thanks to Duterte gov't confusion, the Left regains
influence” published in Rappler last September 23, 2017 provides us a different
perspective on the current status of the CPP-NPA vis-à-vis its relationship
with the Philippine government.
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| Jose Maria Sison, founder of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (photo credit to cnnphilippines) |
I have fully
quoted the article below:
The national
democrats know a break with President Duterte's administration will be
inevitable. For now, it will milk the relationship for all its strategic and
tactical worth.
These critics
have accused these particular leftists of "pera pera lang 'yan"
or "hayok sa posisyon lang." From the surface, it would seem
so. But are they really that stupid, greedy, and shallow?
One must
understand that the national democratic movement suffered a severe shock and
setback during the disaster of the 1986 snap elections boycott campaign and their
marginalization following that. This was a very painful and traumatic
experience for the above- and underground forces of the national democrats.
From being previously seen even by the United States government as the number
one threat to the Marcos dictatorship, they had been swept aside and rendered
irrelevant following the 1986 EDSA Revolution.
Aside from
deposing the dictator, the EDSA Revolution also managed to impose a crushing
defeat on the ambitions of the CPP-NPA to advance the armed struggle from
strategic defensive to that of strategic stalemate. *
This led to a
steady drop in national democratic membership, especially in the underground
movement, in the years following 1986. From a high of 30,000 guerrilla fighters
in 1985, the NPA by 2016 had gone down to 3,500 guerrillas. Revolutionary
Fronts haVE been overwhelmed by successive government counter-insurgency
programs in the past 30 years, gutting the mass base of the movement.
This mass base
is the very source of support for their cadres and guerrillas in matters of
recruitment and extortion. During the mid-1990s, or 10 years after EDSA 1, the
Philippine military felt confident enough to consider modernization programs to
address external defense requirements following the Mischief Reef incident, and
left the primary responsibility of dealing with the CPP-NPA to the Philippine
National Police. Unfortunately for the PNP, it was next to useless in facing
off the communists by itself so, after a short while, the Armed Forces of the
Philippines reassumed primary responsibility again.
By 2014, the
second Aquino administration sought to reassess the threats affecting the
Philippines. For the first time, the CPP-NPA lost out to the People’s Republic
of China as the number one threat to the country. The CPP-NPA was dismissed as
a mere bandit organization that was more interested in collecting funds through
extortion rackets than in furthering the people’s war. *
Hence,
Duterte's peace initiative is a shot in the arm for the national democratic
movement and the CPP-NPA. Of course, money does play a crucial role in their
activities, especially that of the CPP-NPA. But the dream of re-establishing
their strength and influence never left the national democrats, and when they
were given plum positions in the Duterte administration as part of the peace
process, they hit two birds with one stone.
First bird
hit: They became influential in policy making processes in the national
government, which they never enjoyed at all and was a first in their history.
That claim by RAM coup plotters in the 1980s that Corazon Aquino had appointed
communists in her Cabinet was a bunch of hogwash. It took Rodrigo Duterte to
bring them in. Ironically some of the same RAM members who are now avid
supporters of the Duterte administration for whatever personal reasons that
they have, and who cried the loudest in the 1980s against alleged communist
infiltration, do not seem to bat an eyelash against that very decision of
Duterte.
However,
with individuals linked to the national democrats and CPP occupying positions
of power in the Cabinet and other agencies, this created suspicion between them
and those involved in national security. This had the effect of neutralizing a
cardinal concept of governance which is that of whole of government approaches
to solving problems affecting the country. *
Second bird:
More importantly is that this led to confusion and lack of direction in the
security sector, as the Duterte administration concentrated exclusively on the
drug war and left the military with no coherent policy guidance as to how to
deal with the CPP-NPA. Naturally, the CPP-NPA took advantage of this. They
managed to organize in areas they had been cleared from. They added hundreds of
new recruits into the ranks of the guerrilla movement in less than a year, and
had continued mounting offensives, to the chagrin of the confused AFP.
Hence, the
Duterte administration ended up rejuvenating the national democrats and
CPP-NPA. Since the national democrats are well-versed in history, they are very
much aware that such alliances are not meant to last. In fact, given the recent
non-confirmations of Judy Taguiwalo and Rafael Mariano by the Commission on
Appointments, they know that the relationship will end very soon.
Still, they
are patient and are biding their time for that inevitable moment and will milk
the relationship for all its strategic and tactical worth. Every single day of
government confusion is an additional day for the aboveground and underground
movements to strengthen, consolidate, and expand.
Eventually
the break will occur and when it does, the Philippine government’s severely
overstretched security forces will face a confident and strengthened
aboveground and underground movement. Given the disunity and petty squabbles
present within the political opposition, the national democrats again have a
chance to reassert themselves as the dominant anti-government opposition,
pretty much the same way that they did in the 1970s and early 1980s before they
squandered it all in 1986. *
As Duterte
has threatened martial law against future CPP-NPA attacks, this is tantamount
to fighting off a swarm of flies with a stick covered in excrement. Martial law
is going to be another shot in the arm for the national democrats that may
create their much sought for revolutionary situation that has eluded them since
1986. Martial Law in their analysis will result in harsh and draconian measures
that they hope will create more abuses against the civilian population. After
all, the CPP-NPA has always said that the repressive and dictatorial Marcos
regime was their best recruiter. As can be seen in the situation in Lanao del
Sur and areas affected by operations against the Maute, the declaration of
Martial Law has not diminished what many observers have seen as anti-government
sentiments among a number of Maranaos.
It then
becomes a race between the government and anti-government forces as to who can
win over the disenchanted population. In the case of the CPP-NPA, Martial Law
abuses may create the conditions for mass base expansion, guerrilla
recruitment, and sanctuaries. They hope to further exploit the Duterte
administration’s focus on the drug war, which has caused so many police abuses,
and the military’s distraction with the Maute group, which has seen large
numbers of government troops tied down in Lanao del Sur, leaving other parts of
the country vulnerable to communist activities. *
No, the
National Democrats and the underground communists are not fools. In their mind,
they can sense a brewing revolutionary situation. In fact it seems that the
national democrats and the CPP-NPA apparently have gotten their mojo back,
thanks mainly to the incoherence of the Duterte administration.
These are indeed interesting times
These are indeed interesting times
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